Technical analysis
Wednesday, 16 May 2012 - 11:27
16.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
EUR/USD setback targets 1.2624 (2012 low)
Achieved Price Objective Two (1.2850). Stop lowered (1.2770), to lock in further profits within our model portfolio, amidst high volatility.
EUR/USD’s multi-month reversal pattern has extended its setback and, as anticipated, now targets 1.2624 (2012 swing low).
However, the slide is still very overstretched and due some temporary unwinding over the next few sessions.
Expect a potential oversold bounce into 1.2910/12 and 1.3000 (psychological level). Only a sustained move above here will help neutralize the extreme market condition.
Inversely, the USD Index recovery has rocketed much higher into key resistance at 81.78 (13th Jan swing high). The move is overbought and due a healthy unwind back into 80.73 (15th March high), then 79.82.
Expect these levels to hold and help re-launch the greenback’s recovery which is still part of the bullish cycle for a move above 81.78.
Download the 16.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
Tuesday, 15 May 2012 - 10:27
15.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
EUR/USD bearish momentum unwinds from oversold conditions
EUR/USD’s bearish momentum is temporarily unwinding, having overstretched beneath psychological support at 1.3000. Our model portfolio remains short, with a breakeven stop.
While the market holds beneath 1.3000, expect the important multi-month reversal pattern to extend into 1.2626 (16 Jan swing low).
Meanwhile, only a sustained daily close back above 1.3000 and 1.3284 (01st May high), puts this scenario on hold for a potential recovery into our upside target zone at 1.3412/60 (200-day average).
Inversely, the USD Index recovery has paused above its multi-week triangle consolidation. Support remains at 79.80 and 78.40.
Expect these levels to act as one of the last points of defence for a re-launch of the greenback’s recovery which is still part of the bullish cycle into 80.73 (15th March high) and 81.78 (13th Jan swing/12 month high).
Download the 15.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
Monday, 14 May 2012 - 13:47
14.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
Gold’s channel breakout targets key support at $1522
Lowered stop to $1599, thereby locking in further profits. Gold has just breached its multi-month channel support and now targets key level at $1522 (29th Dec swing low). This area will decide Gold’s fate over the next coming weeks.
A sustained confirmation beneath here would reactivate the risk for a much larger decline that we have been anticipating. Keep in mind that our cycle analysis continues to highlight downside targets into $1460 and $1300.
This would likely trigger a temporary, but dramatic setback that would ultimately offer a unique tactical buying opportunity into the coming summer/autumn months of 2012.
The bulls need to hold above $1522 in order to put this scenario on hold and offer potential consolidation or recovery higher.
Download the 14.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
Thursday, 10 May 2012 - 10:21
10.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
EUR/USD bearish pattern breaks psychological level at 1.3000
EUR/USD’s major bearish reversal pattern has broken psychological support at 1.3000 and assisted our model portfolio short position.
The move is being weighed by a recent DeMark™ exhaustion signal and is likely to lead to a further increase of volatility over the next few weeks.
A sustained close below 1.3000 unlocks the important multi-month reversal pattern for a fast move into 1.2626 (16 Jan swing low).
Meanwhile, only a sustained daily close back above 1.3284 (01st May high), puts this scenario on hold for a potential recovery into our upside target zone at 1.3430/60 (200-day average).
Inversely, the USD Index recovery has extended back above its multiweek triangle consolidation. Support remains at 78.60 and 78.09.
Expect these levels to act as one of the last points of defence for a relaunch of the greenback’s recovery which is still part of the bullish cycle into 80.73 (15th March high) and 81.78 (13th Jan swing/12 month high).
Download the 10.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
Wednesday, 09 May 2012 - 11:00
09.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
AUD/USD bearish reversal targets 1.0000
AUD/USD remains bearish after extending beneath its 200-day average and now targets support at 1.0000.
Our cycle analysis continues to favour further weakness into the parity level and 0.9860 (15th Dec low).
Keep in mind that such a move signals a break from the multi-month distribution pattern and its 3-year uptrend.
Only a sustained close above 1.0490 and 1.0670 would put the bearish scenario on hold and target resistance at 1.0857 (29th Feb high).
Elsewhere, the AUD/NZD is completing a counter-trend rally, which is capped beneath its 200-day average (trading at 1.2842). Key support can be found at 1.2465 and 1.2360.
AUD/JPY remains weak, weighed down by a multi-week double top pattern. Any further mean reversion beneath 81.31/15 (TDST level/200-day average), would signal more unwinding of global risk appetite capital flows.
Download the 09.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
Tuesday, 08 May 2012 - 11:48
08.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
AUD/USD bearish reversal targets 1.0000
Achieved First Objective. Stop lowered to breakeven, thereby ensuring a risk-free trade. AUD/USD remains bearish after extending beneath its 200-day average and now targets support at 1.0000.
Our cycle analysis continues to favour further weakness into the parity level and 0.9860 (15th Dec low).
Keep in mind that such a move signals a break from the multi-month distribution pattern and its 3-year uptrend.
Only a sustained close above 1.0490 and 1.0670 would put the bearish scenario on hold and target resistance at 1.0857 (29th Feb high).
Elsewhere, the AUD/NZD is completing a counter-trend rally, which is capped beneath its 200-day average (trading at 1.2842). Key support can be found at 1.2465 and 1.2360.
AUD/JPY remains weak, weighed down by a multi-week double top pattern. Any further mean reversion beneath 81.31/15 (TDST level/200- day average), would signal more unwinding of global risk appetite capital flows.
Download the 08.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
Monday, 07 May 2012 - 10:42
07.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
Bearish pattern tests psychological level at 1.3000
EUR/USD’s latest bearish reversal pattern is testing psychological support at 1.3000 and has activated our model portfolio short position.
The move is being weighed by a recent DeMark™ exhaustion signal and is likely to lead to a further increase of volatility over the next few weeks.
A decisive close below 1.3000 is required to unlock the important multi-month reversal pattern for a fast move into 1.2626 (16 Jan swing low).
Meanwhile, only a sustained daily close back above 1.3284 (01st May high), puts this scenario on hold for a potential recovery into our upside target zone at 1.3459/60 (200-day average).
Inversely, the USD Index recovery has extended back above its multi-week triangle consolidation pattern. Support remains at 78.60 and 78.09.
Expect these levels to act as one of the last points of defense for a re-launch of the greenback’s recovery which is still part of the bullish cycle into 80.73 (15th March high) and 81.78 (13th Jan swing/12 month high).
Download the 07.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
Friday, 04 May 2012 - 13:00
04.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
Gold's renewed setbacks targets 1600
Gold is capped under its short-term bearish channel ceiling (see intraday chart), beneath $1680 (12th April high) and the 200-day average (at $1700).
It still worth remembering the dramatic $103 one-day drop continues to offer psychological pressure for investors and traders.
The recent failure to break above the bearish channel ceiling has now reactivated downside pressure back into 1623 (23rd April low), then $1600 (psychological) and $1567, thereby offering further setbacks into $1522 (29th Dec swing low).
A sustained confirmation beneath here would resume risk for a much larger decline that we have been anticipating. Keep in mind that our cycle analysis continues to highlight downside targets into $1460 and $1300.
This would likely trigger a temporary, but dramatic setback that would ultimately offer a unique tactical buying opportunity into the coming summer/autumn months of 2012.
Only a sustained confirmation above $1716 and $1810 will put the bearish scenario on hold and offer further extended recovery higher on gold.
Download the 04.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
Thursday, 03 May 2012 - 10:54
03.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
EUR/USD DeMark™ signal targets 1.3000
- EUR/USD's latest bearish reversal is extending lower into psychological support at 1.3000.
- The move is being weighed by a recent DeMark™ exhaustion signal and is likely to lead to a major increase of volatility over the next few weeks.
- A decisive close below 1.3000 is required to unlock the important multimonth reversal pattern into 1.2626 (16 Jan swing low).
- Meanwhile, only a sustained daily close back above 1.3284 (01st May high), puts this scenario on hold for a potential recovery into our upside target zone at 1.3459/60 (200-day average).
- Inversely, the USD Index is recovering back above its multi-week triangle consolidation pattern. Support remains at 78.66 and 78.09.
- Expect these levels to act as one of the last points of defence for a relaunch of the greenback's recovery which is still part of the bullish cycle into 80.73 (15th March high) and 81.78 (13th Jan swing/12 month high).
Download the 03.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
Wednesday, 02 May 2012 - 11:32
02.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
EUR/USD bearish reversal weighed by DeMark signal
- EUR/USD’s latest bearish reversal is extending lower into psychological support at 1.3000. The move is being weighed by a recent DeMark™ exhaustion signal.
- A decisive close below 1.3000 is required to unlock the important multimonth reversal pattern into 1.2625 (16 Jan swing low).
- Meanwhile, only a sustained daily close back above 1.3284 (01 May high), puts this scenario on hold for a potential recovery into our upside target zone at 1.3460/62 (200-day average).
- Inversely, the USD Index has breached the lower side of its multi-week triangle consolidation pattern. Support remains at 78.66 and 78.09.
- Expect these levels to act as one of the last points of defence for a relaunch of the greenback’s recovery which is still part of the bullish cycle into 80.73 (15th March high) and 81.78 (13th Jan swing/12 month high).
Download the 02.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
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